2026 will be the first year of President Donald Trump’s government in which he will have absolute control of the federal budget and the funds allocated to immigration, which will allow progress in the mass deportation plan carried out by the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency (ICE).
However, the office of Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) is preparing the implementation of new policies, which includes the change in the public charge rule to condition Legal Permanent Residence.
“While immigrants face a wide variety of circumstances, I believe 2026 will be a more difficult year for many,” said Julia Gelatt, associate director of the Immigration Policy Program at the Migration Policy Institute (MPI). “For those without secure legal status, immigration enforcement efforts are likely to intensify as ICE hires more staff and gains space to detain more people.”
In 2026, ICE could have more federal agents on duty than the 10,000 it is in the hiring process, to increase operations in cities with the highest number of undocumented immigrants.
The Trump Administration will also be able to use more freely the funds authorized by Republicans under the so-called “Big, Beautiful Bill” (BBB) that allocates more than $170 billion dollars for immigration law enforcement, adding 80,000 beds in detention centers, in addition to hiring agents.
“People who are in the country illegally will likely face a higher risk of arrest and possible deportation,” Gelatt acknowledged.
More complicated immigration procedures
USCIS is preparing the new public charge rule that, since late November, has received public comments before the Federal Register, in a plan that seeks to punish immigrants for the use of social assistance, such as food stamps.
“The Trump administration and Congress are also making the daily lives of immigrants without a green card more difficult by restricting their access to government-funded programs and supports that families access in times of economic need,” Galett acknowledged.
In addition, the DHS confirmed new rules for assigning H-1B work visas, leaving aside the application lottery and focusing on the profile of applicants. Changes in immigration procedures could continue.
“We are likely to see other attempts at change that push the boundaries of executive authority, such as the new $100,000 fee for H-1B visas obtained abroad, or the student visa revocations we saw earlier this year, both of which have been challenged in court,” Gelatt said. “However, with Congress maintaining control over the US visa system, much of the legal immigration system could continue to operate relatively normally.”
TPS and other protections come to an end
In early October, the Supreme Court authorized the Trump Administration to move forward with the end of the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program for Venezuelansas part of efforts to reduce the use of the so-called ‘parole’ or temporary forgiveness of deportation.
“Some people who currently have temporary protections, known as Temporary Protected Status (TPS), will lose these protections in early 2026,” said the MPI expert. “And the Trump administration continues to make it difficult for those seeking humanitarian protection in the United States to obtain such protections.”
For the New York City Bar Association (NYCBAR), which has compiled a compilation of all the immigration changes of the Trump Administration, there is a trend toward dismantling the immigration system.
“Executive orders [del presidente Trump] and the rule changes expose virtually all non-citizen U.S. residents to potential harassment, detention, or deportation,” the NYCBAR report says. “In many cases, the administration’s actions will prevent individuals from making legitimate applications to enter or remain in the United States.”
For Galett, some of the changes in immigration matters could be more subtle, but with a view to toughening up the granting of protections to foreigners, whether provisional or permanent.
“I foresee larger changes in immigration law enforcement than in legal immigration processes. For legal immigrants, the changes could be more subtle. We are seeing the Trump administration apply more rigorous vetting to potential immigrants for work and family reasons, which is slowing down processing and could result in more denials,” the expert warned. “In addition, we are seeing that the Trump administration is expanding the travel ban imposed over the summer to further restrict the ability of people from countries with travel bans to obtain visas, green cards or citizenship.”
The executive order banning 32 countries has even led to the suspension of naturalization processes, as warned by the National Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA).
“The ripple effect of these policies will be felt in every corner of our economy and in communities across the country,” Ben Johnson, AILA executive director, warned in a virtual press conference. “We are talking about canceled naturalization ceremonies, thousands of appointments at USCIS and the State Department that could lead to asylum and adjustment of status cases, work authorizations arbitrarily shortened, and entire categories of people suddenly finding themselves in unstable situations.”
A key decision: citizenship by birth
By June at the latest, the Supreme Court will rule on President Trump’s executive order to block birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants and other foreigners.
The judges of the Supreme Court will decide on the case Barbara v. trumpfiled before the District Court of New Hampshire, although other cases could eventually be added, because there are at least seven lawsuits in process against the Trump Administration.
The case of “Bárbara” is similar to that of millions of mixed families in the United States: she is a citizen of Honduras, resides in New Hampshire with her husband and three minor children.
“Barbara has a pending asylum application with the USCIS and has resided in the United States since 2024. Her husband, the father of her son, is not a United States citizen or legal permanent resident. She and her husband are expecting their fourth child,” the court document indicates.
If the decision is in favor of the Trump Administration’s arguments, around 255,000 children annually would not acquire US citizenship, according to estimates by MPI and the Penn State Population Research Institute.