A new state survey found that there is unprecedented pessimism among Latino voters and strong opposition against immigration operations in California ahead of the 2026 election, when there will be midterm elections to determine the new composition of Congress.
“Latinos are increasingly dissatisfied with the direction of the country. 62% believe that we are on the wrong path. This represents a difference of two to one with those who believe that we are on the right path; for many years, Latinos have had a much more positive and optimistic outlook as a community, but that is not the case today,” said Ben Tulchin, president of Tulchin Researcha leading public opinion pollster based in San Francisco.
He specified that the main problem that drives pessimism is inflation.
“82% of Latinos are either extremely or very concerned about inflation, something that transcends partisan lines“, said.
The poll, which surveyed 1,100 people in the final weeks before the Nov. 4 special election, offers an early and detailed look at how Latino voters are evaluating the economy, immigration enforcement, democracy and the direction of the country.
The researcher stated that we are starting to see that those voters who switched from Biden to Trump in 2024 are moving backwards.
The economy
He noted that in terms of attitudes toward the economy, Latinos have a very pessimistic view of the state’s economy.
“74% view California’s current economy as fair or poor, and almost half, 47%, rate it as poor.”
And they consider expenses for groceries, health care and housing their biggest concerns; Particularly the cost of having a roof over your head is the biggest cause of economic anxiety among Latinos.
“63% of Latinos believe that the economy is unfair to workers and only 35% believe that everyone has the same opportunities to prosper and succeed,” Tulchin said.
An interesting fact is that there is a feeling that, although the cost of living is high in California, the state offers more opportunities.
“61% believe California is too expensive, compared to 36% who said: “Well, it may be expensive, but there are more, higher salaries and better opportunities here.”
The survey was conducted in the midst of the Proposition 50 campaign, in which Governor Gavin Newsom took a central role, facing off against Donald Trump.
As a result of that campaign, 42% of Latinos consider Gavin Newsom as someone who defends the interests of the Latino community; 18% cite Donald Trump; another 18% give the credit to community organizations and 17% to Latino members of Congress.
The migration
The survey found that Latinos have fairly positive opinions about immigration.
“49% think positively, 23% have a neutral and mixed opinion, and 20% have negative opinions about immigration and its impact on California communities,” Tulchin said.
But regardless of how they feel about immigration, the vast majority of Latinos believe they are being racially profiled in current immigration law enforcement.
“69% say Latinos are being racially profiled, and only 23% argue that no racial or ethnic group is being singled out.”
Faced with the recent increase in immigration raids at California workplaces, 73% of Latinos oppose this policy, and only 27% support it. No one is undecided on this issue, the poll says.
It also shows that Democrats overwhelmingly oppose the raids, Republicans support them, but a third of them reject them as do 73% of independents.
“This is where undecided Biden and Trump voters are starting to move toward the center and away from Trump, as 86% of those voters oppose these raids, which is almost the same opposition among Democrats. So, the undecided voters are starting to look much more like Democrats than Trump voters and Republicans.”
Proposition 50
Regarding the recent election in which Proposition 50 was approved, which authorized the temporary redrawing of congressional districts, Tulchin said that Latinos voted in favor by a margin of two to one, in line with how they have done in elections prior to 2024, typically being an important part of the Democratic base.
“This is a good indicator for Democrats because they cannot take back the House without winning the Latino vote by a considerable margin. Therefore, Proposition 50 scheduled for next year is encouraging for Democrats,” he said.
Conclusions
Arturo Carmona, CEO of Tzunu Strategies, communications strategist and political advisor, said one of the clearest conclusions of the survey is that Latino voters do not approach the next election cycle from a partisan perspective but rather evaluate leaders and policies based on fairness, consistency and whether their actions fit the challenges they face in their daily lives.
He noted that this investigation comes at an important time in the country when there is growing frustration, concern, and pessimism with the economy, the equity of the system, the country, and the political system.
Carmona noted that they followed this survey closely because it also helps explain the dynamics we see in Proposition 50, what could have happened, and what could happen in the rapidly approaching congressional and state races.