President Donald Trump claims that he “was not on the ballot” in the November 4 elections, but he cannot ignore that voters sent a clear message to the policies that the president and the Republicans defend from the White House and Congress.
The Democrats managed to snatch the governorship from the Republicans in Virginia with the victory of Abigail Spanberger; stop them in New Jersey with Mikie Sherril, and strengthen the progressive movement in New York City, with the election of Zohran Mamdani as mayor, after a race considered perhaps the election with the greatest impact at the national level.
There are several readings that can be made about the voters’ motives, but there is a scenario that the organization KFF – which conducts research on health and health security – highlights about the Republicans’ refusal to extend health insurance subsidies through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and how the government shutdown was an electoral motivation, also recognized, although not assumed by Trump himself.
“Trump was not on the ballot and the government shutdown were the two reasons why the Republicans lost,” the president said, trying to distance himself from his party’s defeat.
The health insurance debate could even reach beyond this election, positioning itself as a key element in 2026, when there are midterm elections.
“Last night we saw for the first time how the debate in Congress in Washington over the shutdown of the federal government and the extension of tax credits for health insurance premiums […] could be influencing voters’ decisions in the upcoming elections,” said Ashley Kirzinger, Director of Polling Methodology at KFF. “Based on the 2025 election results from Virginia and New Jersey, the economy remains the top issue for voters. […] Health care ranks second only to economic issues, with about one in five voters citing it as their top concern.”
In Virginia, 48% of voters considered the government shutdown and health security the most important issue for the state; 32% said the same in New Jersey, according to Kirzinger.
He added that in Virginia, Democrat Spanberger won 81% of the votes of those who considered health care the most important issue for the state.
“The only group in which the Republican candidate obtained a similar result was the 11% of voters who considered immigration as their main concern,” he indicated.
In New Jersey, Sherrill won 92% of the votes of those who prioritized health care.
“It should be noted that both Democratic candidates for governor also obtained the majority of votes from those who considered the economy as their main concern, a group that President Trump easily won in 2024,” the expert recalled. “After Tuesday’s election, it is increasingly difficult to separate concerns about the economy from concerns about health care, as costs have become the most pressing health care issue for voters.”
The case of Virginia and several cities
Although it is a Democratic-leaning state, Republicans had gained ground in Virgnia, currently governed by Glenn Youngkinwho will not be able to run for another term and was seeking to advance towards a possible presidential candidacy with support for Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, defeated by Democrat Spanberger.
A report of Brookings Institute had a particular eye on the raceafter 2023 and 2024 there were severe disinformation campaigns in the state.
“Disinformation also took hold in the November 2024 presidential election in Virginia, particularly regarding false claims about non-citizen voting,” it noted.
The Republicans not only lost the governorship, but also the Virginia House of Delegates, since the Democrats will go from 51 positions to 64 seats.
In Cincinnati, Democrat Aftab Pureval won a second term against Republican Cory Bowman, half-brother of Vice President JD Vance, whose public support did not work.
In Atlanta, Andre Dickens was re-elected as mayor with more than 50% of the vote.
In Detroit, City Council Speaker Mary Sheffield made history by becoming the city’s first woman elected mayor, defeating Triumph Church pastor Solomon Kinloch Jr. with 77% of the vote to Kinloch’s 23%.
“I’m told it was the largest margin of victory in the history of the city of Detroit,” Sheffield told a conference.
The Democrats also won in Minneapolis, Buffalo and Pittsbuth.
Immigration policies
The persecution of immigrants by President Trump’s government and the absolute defense by several of his Republican allies also cost them an important vote, including the Latino vote, from New York to Pennsylvania, but also in New Jersey.
“Voters in Passaic, New Jersey, and Corona, Queens, two cities that voted for Trump last year, voted for pro-immigrant candidates like Mikie Sherrill and Zohran Mamdani,” said the organization Make the Road. “In Hazleton, Pennsylvania, where Trump won with 62% of the vote in 2024, voters kept all the Democratic Supreme Court justices, even though Trump himself asked his supporters to vote against him.”
Make the Road Action recognizes that its focus on electoral mobilization was in those areas, where it knocked on almost 300,000 doors of Latino voters, voters of color and new citizens, in addition to making millions of phone calls, text messages and digital impressions.
“Latino voters made their voices heard last night, and thanks to the organizing power of Make the Road Action members in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, we celebrated today’s victory,” said Theo Oshiro, co-executive director of Make the Road Action. “This victory is not just for us; it is for the millions of working and immigrant families and communities who trusted us to mobilize the vote and elect representatives who will fight against the abuses of the Trump administration.”
Despite the defeat in the elections, the Republican Party seemed to have missed the message of voters.
“Democrats celebrate their new communist leader in New York City as millions of hard-working Americans struggle to make ends meet,” said party chairman Joe Gruters. “Instead of working to reopen the government, Democrats are busy holding rallies for socialists and protecting undocumented immigrants and criminals.”