The Venezuelan opposition welcomed with great satisfaction the Nobel Peace Prize for María Corina Machado.
It is expected to renew international attention to their cause.
In response to the recognition, Machado asked directly for help from the man he hoped to win it.
“Today more than ever we count on President Trump,” Machado declared.
He hopes that with the support of the United States, other Latin American countries and the “democratic nations of the world,” Venezuela “will achieve freedom and democracy.”
The question is: how far will Donald Trump go?
There is a lot at stake in Venezuela right now.
Let’s imagine a country where millions of people live in poverty. Where basic services, such as electricity, are precarious in many areas. And where the health system is in crisis, with a serious shortage of medicines.
A country from which millions of citizens have fled in recent years, many to the United States or neighboring countries.
Venezuela’s last presidential elections were widely dismissed internationally as being neither free nor fair.
Security forces repressed protests after the vote, with numerous people detained. Human rights organizations believe there are still hundreds of political prisoners.
More recently, the United States began bombing vessels off the country’s coast, in international waters, after alleging that they transport drugs and are operated by drug traffickers. Lawyers say the attacks could violate international law.
This is just a snapshot of the current situation in Venezuela and its surroundings. In any other world, it would be a great story.
But the Venezuelan opposition, which according to the United States and other countries won the elections on June 28, 2024, was left with few clear paths to achieve real change.
Few avenues for the Venezuelan opposition
Machado, the de facto leader of the Venezuelan opposition, is in Venezuela in hiding. Opposition candidate Edmundo González, whom the United States and others recognize as president-elect, lives in exile.
Both face threats and have been accused of treason by the government of Nicolás Maduro.
Machado appeared briefly at a protest before Maduro’s inauguration in January, but was arrested and later released.
The widespread protests that took place after the 28J elections have decreased in frequency due to fear of repercussions for protesters.
Opposition calls for military and security forces to abandon Maduro have so far not led to significant defections.
Like other key militia groups, these bodies remain loyal to the president.
There is question to what extent opposition allies, including the United States, might be willing to intervene.
Trump’s real goal
In recent weeks, the United States has bombed at least four vessels in the Caribbean Sea, off the coast of Venezuela in international waters, killing at least 21 people.
The White House claims they are drug trafficking vessels, but has not provided details about the people on board.
Some lawyers believe the attacks violate international law, but a recently leaked memo sent to Congress notes that the United States now defines itself as part of a “non-international armed conflict” against drug trafficking, suggesting it seeks to justify the use of war powers against alleged cartels.
While it is true that groups such as the Tren de Aragua have a presence in the region, it is presumed that some of these vessels come from Venezuela, a country that is by no means the largest focus of drug trafficking in Latin America.
This has led many in the region to suspect that Donald Trump’s true goal with these attacks, along with strengthening the US military presence in the area, is to exert military pressure on Maduro and overthrow him.
military deployment
The Pentagon has reportedly deployed a force of thousands of soldiers to the region and has been planning possible military operations.
Special operations forces have been sighted on neighboring Caribbean islands, such as Trinidad and Tobago.
Grenada’s Foreign Ministry stated that it is reviewing a request from the US government to temporarily install radar equipment and technical staff at its airport.
Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López warned of possible US attacks with drones or special forces carrying out “selective assassinations.”
The president of neighboring Colombia, Gustavo Petro, said that “a new scenario of war has opened” in the Caribbean.
In Venezuela, civil reservists prepare for a possible US attack.
US government officials argue that Maduro leads Venezuela’s cartel network, something he denies, so it is believed the US would argue that removing him from power is ultimately an anti-narcotics operation.
In August, the United States doubled the reward for any information leading to his arrest to $50 million and accused him of being “one of the biggest drug traffickers in the world,” something the Venezuelan government called “pathetic.”
Venezuela has cooperated with some migrant repatriation flights from the United States, but this has not appeased Trump’s anger against Maduro.
The supply of oil
This Friday, the American newspaper The New York Times reported that Venezuelan officials offered the Trump administration a majority stake in Venezuela’s oil, gold and mineral resources, areas that have been heavily sanctioned.
The newspaper stated that the White House rejected the offer.
The Trump administration may have criticized the Nobel Peace Prize committee, accusing it of “playing politics” for not recognizing the American president. But, for now, he remains an ally of the Venezuelan opposition and a staunch opponent of Maduro.
CBS News, the BBC’s American partner, understands that Trump called Machado to congratulate her, saying she deserves the award.
It is unclear whether the United States will limit its operations to small vessels in the Caribbean Sea or whether it has broader plans to attack higher-ranking figures within Maduro’s government.
Venezuela may not have many allies globally, but there are notable exceptions, such as China, Russia, Iran and Cuba.
If the United States decides to intervene in Venezuelan territory, the situation could quickly worsen.
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